Europe's only hope for saving Ukraine from the clutches of Vladimir Putin and Donald Trump lies in its own collective willpower. The US has made it clear that it is willing to sell out Ukraine for the sake of a dirty deal with Russia, but Europe must not be cowed into complacency.
The latest revelation of Trump's US National Security Strategy is a stark reminder of the dangers posed by Putin's aggressive expansionism. The strategy's focus on "cultivating resistance" to Europe's current trajectory within European nations is a thinly veiled attempt to undermine the continent's resolve in supporting Ukraine.
It is up to Europeans to enable Ukraine to survive the assault from Moscow and the diplomatic betrayal from Washington. But it will be a difficult task, requiring sustained military and economic support for Ukraine, as well as pressure on Russia through economic means.
Europe's combined economy is 10 times the size of Russia's, and European defence production is being ramped up. The list of military essentials that only the US can supply is getting shorter, making it easier for Europe to find alternative solutions. However, Trump's profit-seeking logic means that many of these essential goods are still within reach.
The departure of Ukraine's president Volodymyr Zelenskyy's right-hand man Andriy Yermak has created an opportunity for Ukraine to make a bold domestic reset and form a government of national unity. This could be the key to Ukraine's survival, but it will require significant investment in its economy and institutions.
Russia itself is facing growing problems, including a significant loss of life, a struggling economy, and declining oil prices. The price of oil is falling, and long-range Ukrainian attacks have damaged more than a third of Russia's oil refineries. Europe could slow this revenue flow by stopping and inspecting Russian ships that don't meet international safety and environmental standards.
If Europe can generate sufficient military and economic support for Ukraine and apply pressure on Russia, the incentive structure for Putin will change. His generals will tell him "we're not getting anywhere" and his central bank will tell him "the economy is cracking". A ceasefire along the existing frontline becomes more likely, and a longer-term truce is possible.
However, there are many reasons why Europe may fail to rise to this challenge. The still pervasive myth of Russian invincibility, learned helplessness after decades of depending on the US for security, procedural slowness within the EU, acute competition for public money in often heavily indebted European states with ageing populations, and national egoisms that prevent collective action.
Despite these challenges, there is still a glimmer of hope. The optimism of willpower, strategic determination, fighting spirit, and courage to put the long-term collective interest before short-term party-political opportunity can turn "Europe can" into "Europe will". It is up to Europeans to rise to this challenge and demonstrate their resolve in supporting Ukraine against all odds.
The latest revelation of Trump's US National Security Strategy is a stark reminder of the dangers posed by Putin's aggressive expansionism. The strategy's focus on "cultivating resistance" to Europe's current trajectory within European nations is a thinly veiled attempt to undermine the continent's resolve in supporting Ukraine.
It is up to Europeans to enable Ukraine to survive the assault from Moscow and the diplomatic betrayal from Washington. But it will be a difficult task, requiring sustained military and economic support for Ukraine, as well as pressure on Russia through economic means.
Europe's combined economy is 10 times the size of Russia's, and European defence production is being ramped up. The list of military essentials that only the US can supply is getting shorter, making it easier for Europe to find alternative solutions. However, Trump's profit-seeking logic means that many of these essential goods are still within reach.
The departure of Ukraine's president Volodymyr Zelenskyy's right-hand man Andriy Yermak has created an opportunity for Ukraine to make a bold domestic reset and form a government of national unity. This could be the key to Ukraine's survival, but it will require significant investment in its economy and institutions.
Russia itself is facing growing problems, including a significant loss of life, a struggling economy, and declining oil prices. The price of oil is falling, and long-range Ukrainian attacks have damaged more than a third of Russia's oil refineries. Europe could slow this revenue flow by stopping and inspecting Russian ships that don't meet international safety and environmental standards.
If Europe can generate sufficient military and economic support for Ukraine and apply pressure on Russia, the incentive structure for Putin will change. His generals will tell him "we're not getting anywhere" and his central bank will tell him "the economy is cracking". A ceasefire along the existing frontline becomes more likely, and a longer-term truce is possible.
However, there are many reasons why Europe may fail to rise to this challenge. The still pervasive myth of Russian invincibility, learned helplessness after decades of depending on the US for security, procedural slowness within the EU, acute competition for public money in often heavily indebted European states with ageing populations, and national egoisms that prevent collective action.
Despite these challenges, there is still a glimmer of hope. The optimism of willpower, strategic determination, fighting spirit, and courage to put the long-term collective interest before short-term party-political opportunity can turn "Europe can" into "Europe will". It is up to Europeans to rise to this challenge and demonstrate their resolve in supporting Ukraine against all odds.